That's a *very* insightful post, thank you for sharing it.

If the answer is "no", it means that a big part of that artificial value created will soon be reduced to ashes. If the answer is "yes", then it's only a matter of time for it to become a "no".

The important question after that is "does it really matter at a global scale?". The risk does not seem systemic, so the losers will only be the ones who dared to play: entrepreneurs and VCs. No big deal: they play that game specifically because the enjoy the risky part of the (ad)venture.

At the ecosystem level, it will eventually cause a violent paradigm shift, but here again: it's the healthy cycle of the innovation funding process, as described by William Janeway.

I'm not pretending to understand everything here, so please correct me if I'm wrong.

Expand full comment

Interesting, thanks. Maybe you can adjust the figures with the failure rates for seed and growth stages. 90% at seed stage, and ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ for growth stage.

Expand full comment